Ato Forson set to present 2027 Budget today amid expectations for job creation

Real GDP growth reached 6 per cent in the second quarter, above the 4.8 per cent full-year target. Inflation stood at 5.5 per cent in October, below the Bank of Ghana’s medium-term target band of 6 to 10 per cent. The primary balance recorded a surplus of 0.9 per cent of GDP in the second quarter, against a full-year target of 1.5 per cent. Gross international reserves stood at 4.2 months of import cover in August, exceeding the three-month minimum target.
Against this backdrop, the government is proposing a set of economic targets for 2027 that point to a continued focus on stability, alongside a stronger push for investment and growth.

Overall real GDP growth is projected at a minimum of 5 per cent, with non-oil growth also targeted at 5 per cent. The end-period inflation target is set at 8 per cent, within a range of 6 to 10 per cent.
On the fiscal front, the government is targeting a primary surplus of 0.5 per cent of GDP, down from the 1.5 per cent target for 2026. The lower target suggests a moderation in the pace of fiscal consolidation and could provide more room for development spending.

The government also intends to build gross international reserves to at least six months of import cover, double the three-month minimum target for 2026. Public debt is projected at 43 per cent of GDP.
These targets will provide important benchmarks for assessing the government’s economic performance and its ability to balance investment ambitions with fiscal discipline. At the centre of the government’s growth agenda is the proposed US$10 billion New Economy investment programme, covering the period from 2027 to 2030.
The programme is intended to move the economy beyond stabilisation towards higher production, industrialisation, value addition and job creation.
The 2027 Budget is expected to provide details of the financing and implementation arrangements, including how government intends to mobilise domestic resources and attract private-sector capital.

The programme identifies priority areas such as commercial agriculture and agribusiness, energy, critical minerals and value addition, textiles and garments, tourism and the creative arts, and pharmaceutical manufacturing.
Government is also expected to outline its proposed funding arrangements for flagship initiatives, including the Big Push infrastructure programme, the 24-Hour Economy and the Gold Refining Initiative.
The Big Push has a programmed allocation of GH¢27.5 billion from combined domestic resources and the Annual Budget Funding Amount. The Gold Refining Initiative, meanwhile, targets local refining of at least one metric tonne of gold every week.
The key issue will be whether government can secure the financing, prepare viable projects and attract private investment to deliver the programme’s intended outcomes.

The International Monetary Fund has also emphasised the need for stronger project appraisal, competitive procurement and tighter expenditure controls to ensure value for money under the New Economy programme.
Therefore, the 2027 Budget will be assessed not only by its economic targets and proposed allocations, but also by the government’s ability to implement its plans.

Source: Vera Abrafi Kore

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